The Banking Industry
The breaking of the credit crunch through 2007-2008 and continued problems within the financial sector has led to significant structural change within the banking industry in the UK (and elsewhere) this has thrown up many aspects of theory of the firm that could be explored:
Market Share (OFT 2012)
Lloyds Group 30% (HBOS takeeover + part nationalised 2008)
RBS 16% (part nationalised 2008)
HSBC 14% (Strong emerging market business model)
Santander 13% (Spanish owned)
Barclays 12% (attempted takeover of Lehmans 2008 / Diamond in executive pay bonus issues with shareholders 2012)
85% - 5 firm concentration ratio - highly concentrated
Key issues
exit of unsuccessful firms leading to greater control for remaining firms
bail out of unsuccessful firms (nationalisation v priviatisation) and consideration of moral hazzard - encouraging high risk strategies looking for high short-run profit safe in the knowledge that banks are "too big to fail" thus taxpayers will cover any downside risk
divorce of ownership and control and firms objectives -
princple agent problems of the public limited company (plc) as a model for ownership and the ways around these issues.
Complextity of institutional investors also focused on short run returns through share price or dividend rather than long run sustainable strategies.
roles of regulators - regulation v deregulation
FSA - Bank of England separation in 1997 was wise?
growing complexity of financial innovation makes this a market impossible to regulate?
separation of retail and investment banking "firewall" Glass Seagal Act from 1930s repealed under Clinton in US allowed recreation of bubble conditions through leverage not seen since the Great Depression. Should these reglations be put back in place - Frank Dodds Act 2010 recently in US attempt to recreate greater scrutiny over financial markets
beware diagram in above video not correct... shows long run equilibrium in momopolistic competition... if perfect the AR curve would be perfectly elastic for the firm
with the euro dominating the news exchange rate topics look to be a good bet for econ 4 here is a brief overview
regimes (choice of types of exchange rate systems); specialisation and trade leads to the needs to convert domestic prices into international ones and vice versa. currency is in derived demand to trade
float - demand and supply
positive - partial adjustment for trade imbalance
one less thing for monetary authority to worry about when conducting policy
negative - volatility and uncertainty when creating international contracts over time but this may be reduced by hedging with futures to guarentee rates but extra cost involved
fix - peg reduces uncertainty by setting a price over time and can act as an anchor for inflation
soft peg - price guarentee scheme price is maintained through intervention buying and selling by the central bank plus use of interest rates to influence currency demand
buffer stock of commodity is international foreign currency reserves and gold used to buy domestic currency to support price
examples of soft pegs
UK ERM 1992: where 2.95 peg against Deutsch Mark deemed too high by market, waves of selling forced Bank of England to spend billions and hike interest rates from 10 to 15% in one day in the middle of a recession before giving up and letting the currency float
Swiss Franc 2011: Swiss Franc fell 10% in one day as Central Bank looked to print and sell its own currency to bring the price down as safe haven status in face of euro crisis had led to a 25% appreciation in real terms
hard peg- a more sophisticated committment to fix one currency against another achieved in two ways
currency board: peg currency is held in reserve to back every unit of domestic currency in circulation eg Argentina 1991-2002 1 to 1 against US Dollar.
dollarization: adoption of another currency completely and removal of domestic currency, the Eurozone is an example of this
Exchange Rate Regimes may exist in a range of intermediate forms that offer the advantages (and disadvantages) of the polar extremes
dirty float - demand and supply with the odd tweak from a central authority when deemed too high or too low
acceptable range: ceilings and floors set out highest and lowest values with float between and soft peg intervention when challenging top or bottom
adjustable peg - soft peg with intermitant movement of fix price to reflect changing market fundamentals
Exchange Rate movement are key to influencing macro economic performance - growth issues in the sense that (X-M) is a component of AD
X is total revenue from exports (Px Qx)
M is total revenue from imports (Pm Qm)
Clearly a fall in the exchange rate (depreciation) will make exports cheaper and imports more expensive but it truth the impact on revenue flows is dependent on the elasticity of demand for exports and imports ie whether the Marshal Lerner Condition applys (combined elasticities for X and M must be greater than 1 for a fall in the exchange rate to have a positive effect on the trade balance).
The J-curve is a graph illustration of the Marshal Lerner Condition in action
Exchange Rates are a great way to combine micro and macro analysis - synoptic styles which lead to high marks use ADAS to analyse employment and inflation impacts - remember a depreciation will lead to pressure on costs as well and injecting competitiveness
The breaking of the credit crunch through 2007-2008 and continued problems within the financial sector has led to significant structural change within the banking industry in the UK (and elsewhere) this has thrown up many aspects of theory of the firm that could be explored:
Market Share (OFT 2012)
Lloyds Group 30% (HBOS takeeover + part nationalised 2008)
RBS 16% (part nationalised 2008)
HSBC 14% (Strong emerging market business model)
Santander 13% (Spanish owned)
Barclays 12% (attempted takeover of Lehmans 2008 / Diamond in executive pay bonus issues with shareholders 2012)
85% - 5 firm concentration ratio - highly concentrated
Key issues
exit of unsuccessful firms leading to greater control for remaining firms
bail out of unsuccessful firms (nationalisation v priviatisation) and consideration of moral hazzard - encouraging high risk strategies looking for high short-run profit safe in the knowledge that banks are "too big to fail" thus taxpayers will cover any downside risk
divorce of ownership and control and firms objectives -
princple agent problems of the public limited company (plc) as a model for ownership and the ways around these issues.
Complextity of institutional investors also focused on short run returns through share price or dividend rather than long run sustainable strategies.
roles of regulators - regulation v deregulation
FSA - Bank of England separation in 1997 was wise?
growing complexity of financial innovation makes this a market impossible to regulate?
separation of retail and investment banking "firewall" Glass Seagal Act from 1930s repealed under Clinton in US allowed recreation of bubble conditions through leverage not seen since the Great Depression. Should these reglations be put back in place - Frank Dodds Act 2010 recently in US attempt to recreate greater scrutiny over financial markets
Introduction: Hot topic and possible to consider within the Econ 3 Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Framework:
Economic Concepts Private Cost: Direct costs of the project (estimated involved between £9bn and £12bn on construction venues, staffing and policing the event. External Cost: Third party effects of the games such as increased congestion and other disruptions to normal routines during the construction and hosting of the games. Private Benefit: Direct value extracted from the consumption of a good or service eg enjoyment from being there when Bolt runs the100m final External Benefit: third party gains from the decision to produce and consume. Multiplier effects of construction and investment, legacy notions of facilities and a new generation of fitter healthier people Secondary Markets: touts selling tickets above face value
beware diagram in above video not correct... shows long run equilibrium in momopolistic competition... if perfect the AR curve would be perfectly elastic for the firm flash econ animation